Risk Analysis Prerequisites

Before you can run a risk analysis on a project, you must have the following prerequisites in place:

• Add Activities to the Project

  You must add activities to the project, defining the work that must be carried out to complete the project. For each activity, you must enter details, including the activity type, start and finish dates, duration, relationships, and constraints. Activity details define important characteristics for each activity that control how the project is scheduled and how individual risks impact each activity.

  Optionally, you can enter uncertainty estimates on your activities, designating the minimum, most likely, and maximum durations for each activity.

  If your Oracle Primavera Cloud project is integrated with P6, you can also import activity data from a P6 project.

• Develop Risk Assessment Criteria and Tools

  You must create the risk thresholds and matrices to use for both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis.

  If your Oracle Primavera Cloud project is integrated with P6, you can also import this data from a P6 project.

• Add Risks to the Project Risk Register

  You must add risks to the risk register and assign probability and impact values to each risk. Optionally, you can create risk response actions to address the risks and establish post-response contexts. This enables you to run an analysis on both contexts so you can compare the results to understand the effectiveness of your risk response actions. If your Oracle Primavera Cloud project is integrated with P6, you can also import risk register data from a P6 project.

  You should assign activities to your threat and opportunity risks to apply the risk impact values to the activities they affect. Threat and opportunity risks without assigned activities will be applied directly to the project finish date. If you want to analyze the impact of your weather risks, you it is required that you assign activities to your weather risks. Weather risks without assigned activities will not be included in the analysis. Up to 30,000 risks are supported for analysis.

The Monte Carlo process uses activity uncertainty values, the schedule impact values from assigned threat or opportunities risks, and non-working estimates from weather risks to vary the duration of each activity during the risk analysis. As the analysis calculations are performed, duration changes in predecessor activities can impact the start dates of their successor activities, which can also lead to those successor activities being scheduled over additional non-working periods, thereby further delaying an activity's finish date. All of these values are captured for each iteration run during the risk analysis, resulting in probabilistic distributions of possible outcomes.