View the Probabilistic Weather Calendar

The probabilistic weather calendar calculates the non-working time probabilities for all of the days in a weather risk's periods. This provides a model of the risk's potential impact that you can use to ensure the risk's data is accurately modeled.

When you open the calendar for a weather risk, a simulation of 100 iterations is run on the risk's weather periods and the non-working time estimates for each period. The result is a calendar that shows non-working time probabilities by day. A period with higher non-working time estimates will result in days with higher probabilities of being non-working. Depending on your non-working time definition, Distribution or Percentage, days will be randomly distributed according to their estimates, or they will be spread using percentages and take into account the given persistence estimates.

In the calendar's yearly view, each day is colored according to the percentage range where its probability value occurs. The yearly view provides a high-level look at the risk's potential impact over time. In the monthly view, each day maintains the same color and also displays its non-working probability value. A calendar legend indicates the range each color represents. The calculated probability values are the accumulated totals of all iterations. You can step through individual iterations to see the non-working time scenarios that were simulated.

The calendar is intended to be a quick way to verify your weather model. It does not take into account data from activities associated with the risk. If you want to adjust the model, you can modify your period and estimate data and run the simulation again.

To view the probabilistic weather risk calendar:

In the object selector, select ﱆ Project or  Program, and then select a project or a program from the list.
From the  Main Menu, select  Risk, and then select Risk Register.
In the table, select a risk with a Type of Weather, and then select the Weather detail window.
Select  Calendar.
In the Weather Probabilistic Calendar panel, the default view is Year. Select Month to view daily probabilities at the monthly level.
Navigate through the calendar by using the  Previous and  Next arrows. Select the Today button to show the current year or month with the current date italicized.
Select Show Individual Sample to view individual iteration data. Enter a number or use the Increment and Decrement arrows to view any of the 100 iterations. Disable the Show Individual Sample check box to view the overall probability totals.
Use the legend at the bottom of the panel to understand the colors assigned to each day.
When you are finished with the calendar, select  Close.

Tips

When viewing the overall probability values of all iterations, the daily probability values can vary between 0% and 100% depending on how many times that day was marked as non-working during the 100 iteration. Days outside any of the risk's weather period dates will always be white, indicating a probability of 0%. When viewing individual iterations, days can either be marked white, indicating a 0% probability of the day being non-working, or they are marked with the darkest color, indicating a 100% probability of the day being non-working. The combined values from all iterations is what results in a range of colors.
Weather data is not supported for risks with a type of Threat or Opportunity. To add a weather risk, see Add a Risk to the Risk Register.
Calendar data is not supported for program-level risks.
If there is a large amount of weather data, the simulation calculation process may run as a background process.

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